If the scarecrow has a brain he'll choose Clinton
First up: the pic was taken by a friend in NYC. The graffiti goes with today's post. I particularly like placing the "...or else" below the alphabet for effect.More than likely Obama will not choose Hillary Clinton as his running mate. The foolish and mindless contempt his hardcore base has for the Clintons goes right to the top - as we saw in the primaries. Still if he's as smart as some say....here's why he might...
Reasons why Hillary Clinton is the politically right choice for VP and reasons why BHO may want her:
1. Some are insisting BHO is a Communist. Some say he's a corporate stooge. (They are only mutually exclusive after he gains power.) I favor corporate stooge born of the Chicago machine myself. But one thing is certain: Obama looks out for Obama. If the socialist organisation ACORN helps him - he's their man. If Goldman Sacks writes checks - he's their man. If the black theology church helps him - he's their man. This is the one distinctive pattern of his public life. With rare exceptions (the infants born alive act) , if there is no definable benefit and he must act - he punts. This year, the Left wing of the Democratic Party has had it's best run since 1972. But the party remains Clinton based. Hillary proved this over and over again in the primaries. With a big assist from the media and the DNC - BHO pulled off the "win." But it is an unnatural fit. BHO's poll numbers may actually be high at this point. A strange inversion is occurring - the more people look at BHO the less they like him, the more people look at McCain the more they like him. Many factors remain that favor BHO in the general. But one by one McCain is picking them off. The past 2 months have been very good for McCain. I have no idea if he can keep it up. But it is savvy so far. This brings me back to Clinton. Obama the opportunist knows Hillary commands a large audience. He knows this is the best ticket. Webb would have been great. Nunn is a strong choice. At this moment in time though Clinton brings in exactly who he needs - and he knows it.
Why do I think he knows it?
2. Both Clintons have been given a strong presence in Denver. Over and above what is perfunctory. I don't think Obama "blinked" in a battle with the Clintons - I think he opened his eyes.
3. Clinton delivers states.
Ohio is now in the McCain column by a whisker. Biden or Bayh do not change that. Clinton does.
Arkansas is certainly a McCain state- unless a certain ex-President is sent home to do some heavy lifting for his wife. Bill Clinton can deliver Arkansas.
Now Florida - again we have McCain winning in a close race. Unless he chooses Crist - Clinton can switch that state to blue - by a whisker...
New Mexico should go to Obama- barely - Clinton can solidify New Mexico.
Now to my home state: California. Is it loco to think California is winnable for McCain? No. California is strongly DEM in voter registration. But unless a Clinton is on the ballot there is no certainty a Dem wins. For all our "blue" credentials there has been only 5 years in which a DEM has been governor since 1982. That's 21 years GOP - 5 DEM. Since 1889 there have only been 22 years of DEM gubernatorial rule total. 16 of those are from the Brown family exclusively. Gore and Kerry won the state. I would argue for the former - that the landslide for Gore here had everything to do with Clinton. As for the latter - his landslide here was a no to Bush more than a yes to Kerry. California likes moderate GOPs. "Moderate" and "Maverick" are labels that appeal here. Ask Arnold. "Effete" and "Out of Touch" are damning here. Ask recalled Governor Grey Davis. McCain may put his best efforts elsewhere. But California is do-able if he continues degrade the Obama brand. A Clinton on the ballot in California makes a GOP win here impossible. Additionally, gay marriage is on the ballot - which will bring the GOP base out in force. Some moderate voters - esp women - will vote no on gay marriage and FOR VP Clinton. They won't "split" for Obama/Biden.
BHO and Axelrod have to be looking across the landscape and see some scary stuff.
Clinton can deliver where he's weak.
4. Party Unity. Much has been written about "deadender" PUMAs. This is nonsense. PUMAs are a force. BHO knows this. 2 months of insults and attempted marginalization have only solidified PUMAs against Obama. This amounts to 20-25% of Democratic voters. Hillary can't bring them all back. But she CAN bring 5-10% back. That's more than enough in a close race. And the Democrats can leave Denver with a legitimate claim to unity. Hardcore PUMAs may be right - but they will be marginalized.
5. Experience. This is important to me so I hammer at it a lot. But from a purely political stand point Obama had better watch his back on this GOP talking point. Anyone on BHO's short list has more experience than him - so they help. Clinton is the only person who can make begin to deflate what will be the main problem Obama has against McCain. Hillary did an amazing thing during the primaries - other than winning the majority of votes - she re-created herself. In political speech "experience " is often code for "tough". Hillary's brand now is "tough fighter". Even in the Clinton hating media, even among Clinton hating conservatives. Obama will never win the toughness argument with McCain. But he can accent his strengths with a "tough" team.
Here's an example: Kerry needed to appear more "tough". Edwards made his convention speech and looked like a boy scout. Where as Bush negated the experience question in 2000 by choosing Cheney. We've all grown to hate him - but in 2000 he added much needed ballast to the GOP ticket.
Even if he chose Attila the Hun the attack on Obama's experience is inevitable - and justified. Biden, Nunn and Hillary Clinton ALL add to Obama's toughness factor - not hard to do - but only Clinton adds toughness and a base and is a known quantity.
Clinton is the best choice he has.
2 Caveats: much depends on McCain's choice. If he goes too far Right he blows the election. Conservatives can squeal all they want - but in this case they will pony up. Obama scares the Right too much.
Also- Sam Nunn brings much of Clinton's strengths to the ticket. It is a politically sound choice. However, he is an unknown to most of America. He adds no sparkle. no pizazz.
As for the eruption a Clinton pick would cause on the Daily Kos, Huffington, Arugula chewing, Dum-Dum Left - they will get over it by the second day of the GOP convention. They'll scream and make offensive and actionable remarks - and then settle down and focus on their DEAR LEADER.
Finally, BHO loves to be compared to Lincoln and Kennedy. Both made seemingly contradictory choices VP because the politics of the moment demanded it. Lincoln chose a Democrat during the civil war. JFK chose a Texan he did not like and no one in his family liked because he knew a Catholic from the Northeast was a tough sell in the South, and he needed at least some of the South.
I still can't quite see the Obama Resentment Express getting over itself enough to choose Clinton - but he does want to win. Either is ego is so big he won't choose her or his ambition is so voracious that he will.
posted by J -SOM at
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
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